The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has warned that a prolonged period of elevated oil prices could slow the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), raising fresh concerns about the sustainability of one of the global economy’s fastest-growing sectors.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook, the WTO flagged energy costs as a critical risk, cautioning that the ongoing Middle East conflict-and its impact on oil and gas markets- could directly affect AI investment and deployment. Its chief economist, Robert Staiger, said there is “an interaction between the Middle East conflict and the AI boom,” noting that the technology’s heavy reliance on energy makes it particularly vulnerable to sustained price shocks.
Staiger added that if energy prices remain high throughout the year, they could “put a crimp on the AI boom,” underscoring how rising operational costs-from data centres to chip manufacturing- may force companies to scale back or delay investments.
The warning comes at a time when artificial intelligence has emerged as a major driver of global investment and trade. According to World Trade Organisation estimates, AI-related goods accounted for about 42% of global trade growth in 2025, while in North America, they accounted for roughly 70% of investment growth, underscoring the sector’s outsized role in sustaining economic momentum.
However, the organisation cautioned that this momentum may not be guaranteed. Staiger pointed to the concentration of AI investment among a small number of large firms and described the technology as still “unproven in terms of how much it can deliver,” highlighting uncertainties around long-term returns.
Beyond the AI sector, the WTO expects broader economic implications from sustained energy shocks. It projects global goods trade growth will slow sharply to about 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, with the possibility of a further decline if high energy prices persist.
The organisation also warned that elevated oil and gas prices, driven by disruptions to supply routes and infrastructure, could increase production costs, strain supply chains, and weaken demand across multiple sectors, including transport and agriculture.
Analysts note that AI infrastructure is especially exposed to such pressures. Large-scale data centres and semiconductor fabrication facilities require vast amounts of electricity, meaning higher energy prices can quickly translate into increased operating costs and reduced margins, potentially slowing the pace of expansion.
While AI investment helped cushion global trade in 2025, the WTO stressed that a prolonged energy shock could reverse those gains, weakening both economic growth and the trajectory of technological development in 2026.
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