When the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that rapidly rising adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is pushing electricity demand higher and potentially straining power grids, the signal hit a stark reality in Nigeria—a country where the national grid collapses is a reoccurring decimal.
Grid That Already Struggles
Nigeria’s national grid isn’t just unstable—it is one of the most frequently failing large grids globally:
- Over the past decade, the grid has collapsed around 105 times, even as billions in loans were spent trying to stabilise it.
- In a five-year period (2020–2024), the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) recorded 20 system collapses (14 total and 6 partial).
- In 2024 alone, Nigeria’s grid is reported to have collapsed at least 12 times—a rate of about once per month.
- Historical data show hundreds of grid failures over more than a decade; between 2010 and 2019, there were 206 partial and total collapses.
- Even late into 2025 and early 2026, total collapses continued, including major nationwide blackouts reported in September 2025, December 2025, and January 2026.
These figures show not occasional faults, but a recurring systemic instability that affects households, businesses, manufacturing, and essential services.
A Grid Under Pressure — With Demand Rising
AI and other digital technologies (cloud computing, fintech systems, real-time data platforms) require continuous, stable electricity—something Nigeria’s grid rarely provides. At the same time:
- Frequent collapses disrupt not only homes but the digital economy infrastructure that increasingly powers commerce and governance.
- Businesses and organisations compensate with diesel generators and solar-battery systems, raising costs for everyone while increasing carbon emissions.
- Nigeria in the Global AI Demand Context
The IEA has highlighted that AI workloads and data centres globally are pushing electricity demand higher, with projections that data-centre power use could double by 2030 as generative AI and computing needs grow. This doesn’t just apply to the U.S. or Europe-emerging digital hubs like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano will see rising computing demand for:
- fintech transaction processing
- mobile-money platforms
- digital ID and e-government services
- telecom network operations
- AI-based agriculture, healthcare, education analytics
All these systems must battle the same unstable grid that collapsed dozens of times in recent years.
The Grid Collapse–AI Paradox
The paradox Nigeria faces is stark:
Unchecked AI adoption without grid upgrades = more instability
- AI and data centre workloads add constant load, not flexible, lowering tolerance for voltage or frequency swings.
- Frequent blackouts and grid failures mean data services switch to generators, increasing costs and emissions.
But AI could also help fix the grid
- Smart grid technologies using AI can improve demand forecasting, fault detection, load balancing, and reduce losses-if deployed within the power sector itself.
- A Moment of Choice
Nigeria’s experience shows why the IEA’s global warning matters locally:
- Without urgent investment in generation capacity, transmission expansion, automation, and data-driven grid management, the grid will remain a bottleneck for economic and digital growth.
- The same technologies promising AI-driven innovation could be part of the solution—but only if power infrastructure is modernised first.
Nigeria’s frequent grid collapses—monthly or more in recent years—don’t just reflect technical failures; they highlight a fundamental mismatch between rising digital demand and physical electricity infrastructure. The more the economy electrifies (including AI), the more urgent it becomes to fix the grid itself.
Senior Reporter/Editor
Bio: Ugochukwu is a freelance journalist and Editor at AIbase.ng, with a strong professional focus on investigative reporting. He holds a degree in Mass Communication and brings extensive experience in news gathering, reporting, and editorial writing. With over a decade of active engagement across diverse news sources, he contributes in-depth analytical, practical, and expository articles that explore artificial intelligence and its real-world impact. His seasoned newsroom experience and well-established information networks provide AIbase.ng with credible, timely, and high-quality coverage of emerging AI developments.