A new African Development Bank report estimates that inclusive deployment of artificial intelligence could add up to $1 trillion to Africa’s GDP by 2035, driven by gains in key sectors, targeted investment and supportive government policy.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has published a strategic roadmap to unlock the economic and social potential of artificial intelligence (AI) across the continent. Developed under the G20 Digital Transformation Working Group, Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation outlines how AI could be deployed to drive productivity and inclusive growth in African economies.
The study, conducted by consulting firm Bazara Tech, estimates that the inclusive deployment of artificial intelligence could add up to $1 trillion to Africa’s GDP by 2035, an amount equivalent to nearly one-third of the continent’s current economic output. The projection is based on detailed sectoral modelling that factors in Africa’s expanding digital capacity, favourable demographic trends and ongoing reforms across key industries. According to the report, the main drivers of this potential growth include the continued expansion of digital infrastructure and computing capacity, a young, increasingly tech-savvy workforce capable of adopting new technologies, and policy and regulatory reforms that create an enabling environment for private-sector investment and innovation.
While the report projects significant upside for the African economy and its place in the broader global economy, it treats the $1tn figure as a conditional estimate that depends on timely investment, supportive government action, and coordinated programmes to manage climate and social risks alongside technological adoption.
The report finds the AI dividend will be concentrated in a few high‑impact sectors rather than spread evenly across the African economy. Its analysis identifies five priority sectors — agriculture (20%), wholesale and retail (14%), manufacturing and Industry 4.0 (9%), finance and inclusion (8%), and health and life sciences (7%) — which together are projected to capture 58% of total AI gains, roughly $580 billion by 2035. These sectors were chosen for their economic size, readiness to adopt AI and strong potential to support inclusive development outcomes.
Artificial intelligence is expected to deliver its most substantial economic impact across several key sectors. In agriculture, which accounts for about 20% of the projected gains, AI can improve production and cut post-harvest losses through tools such as yield forecasting, early pest detection and optimised input supply chains. The wholesale and retail sector, which accounts for roughly 14%, stands to benefit from AI-driven demand forecasting, dynamic pricing, and automated inventory management, helping businesses grow revenue while lowering costs for consumers. In manufacturing and Industry 4.0, predictive maintenance and intelligent automation can increase productivity and support local industrialisation efforts. The finance and financial inclusion sector, which accounts for 8%, could use AI-powered credit scoring and digital financial services to expand access to banking and capital for millions of households and small businesses. Meanwhile, health and life sciences, which account for around 7%, can leverage AI in diagnostics, supply-chain optimisation, and telemedicine to improve health outcomes while reducing the overall cost of healthcare systems.
“We have set out the key actions in this report, identifying the areas where initial implementation should be focused,” said Nicholas Williams, Manager of the ICT Operations Division at the Bank. “The Bank is ready to release investment to support these actions. We expect the private sector and the government to utilise this investment to ensure we achieve the identified productivity gains and create quality jobs.”
Practical funding and implementation routes mentioned in the report include AfDB lending, blended finance and de‑risking instruments to attract private investment. Illustrative country‑level projects could range from AI‑powered irrigation and supply‑chain platforms in agricultural regions to digital credit programmes that boost small business cash flow and production capacity.
The report says realising AI’s potential hinges on five interlinked enablers: data, compute, skills, trust and capital. Reliable, interoperable data underpins meaningful AI insights; scalable compute and infrastructure allow models and services to be deployed across regions; and a skilled workforce is needed to build, operate and maintain AI systems. Trust – established through governance, regulation and ethical standards -is essential for adoption, while adequate capital and targeted investment will de‑risk innovation and accelerate deployment.
Unlocking the full potential of artificial intelligence will depend on several critical enablers. Strong data foundations are needed through the creation of interoperable, open datasets across sectors such as agriculture, health, and energy, alongside shared standards that improve model accuracy and enable solutions to be reused across countries. Investment in compute and digital infrastructure will also be essential, including expanding regional cloud and edge-computing capacity to ensure AI services can operate with low latency, reliable power, and resilient supply chains. Building the right skills base is another priority, requiring the scaling up of vocational training, university programmes and on-the-job upskilling to prepare workers for AI-enabled roles. Equally important are trust and governance, with robust frameworks for data protection, regulation, and oversight to address risks related to bias, privacy, and climate impact. Finally, mobilising capital and investment will be key, with the African Development Bank using its lending capacity, blended finance and de-risking instruments to crowd in private capital and channel billions of dollars into AI projects that deliver clear development outcomes.
To operationalise these enablers, the report proposes a three‑phase roadmap for AI readiness: ignition (2025–27), consolidation (2028–31) and scale (2032–35). The ignition phase prioritises pilot projects, foundational data assets and initial investments; the consolidation phase focuses on scaling successful pilots, strengthening regulations and building regional infrastructure; and the scale phase seeks widespread adoption that delivers greater productivity and development gains.
“Achieving early milestones by 2026 will set Africa’s AI flywheel in motion,” said Ousmane Fall, Director of Industrial and Trade Development at the Bank. The report urges governments, development partners and the private sector to align plans and funding now so that work scheduled for the ignition phase – data platforms, pilot projects and initial infrastructure investments – can start without delay.
Read the full AfDB report for the methodology, sectoral modelling and the Bank’s proposed investment and policy recommendations here
Suggested actions: download the PDF for complete data annexes, review the report’s proposed programmes for funding and infrastructure investment, and contact the AfDB for partnership opportunities on pilot projects.